Friday, 7 November 2014

Of OECD's GDP growth forecast....


The OECD has bumped up India's growth forecast for next year citing a pickup in investment because of the improved political situation that stems from the Narendra Modi-led BJP having come to power with a substantial majority that will enable it to undertake reforms. The country could be within striking distance of China by 2016 in terms of the pace of growth, with that country forecast to slow in the years ahead, according to the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). But that doesn't mean the central bank can relent in the fight against inflation, it said. This runs counter to the demand for interest rate cuts from companies and some government quarters.
OECD expects the Indian econo my to expand 6.4% next year compared with 5.9% estimated less than two months back in its September '14 interim outlook. "GDP will slow in China, but pick up in India and remain sluggish in Brazil and Russia," the Paris-based grouping said in the OECD Economic Outlook released on Thursday that lowered growth targets for the global economy .
Since taking charge, the Modi government has unveiled several policy changes such as deregulating diesel prices, linking gas prices to global benchmarks, amendments to labour policies, steps to end the `inspector raj' and cutting red tape for businesses. It's expected to unveil further reform measures in the months ahead.Stock markets have boomed, with the key indices rising to records on Wednesday .
"Investment will be the main growth engine, after several quarters of subdued growth," it said, adding that the pace of reforms has picked up in India. Growth is projected to rise to 6.6% in 2016 while China will slow to 6.9 % by that year. However, for the current year, India's growth forecast has been cut to 5.4% from 5.7% estimated initially . These numbers are not strictly comparable with India's national headline statistics that are compiled on the basis of factor cost and follow a April-March fiscal year.
The organisation projects the global economy will expand 3.3% in 2014 and recover gradually to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016. OECD's May forecast had pegged growth at 3.4% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015.



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